BY:SpaceEyeNews.
China has released rare, high-quality footage of its DF-31AG intercontinental missile launch, the first publicly acknowledged test of this scale in decades. Conducted on September 25, 2024, this event has drawn attention not only for its technical execution but also for what it reveals about China’s advancing long-range capabilities.
A Rare Public Demonstration
The launch took place from Hainan Island, a departure from China’s traditional inland missile test ranges. According to open-source analysis, the DF-31AG traveled approximately 11,700 kilometers, with its dummy payload landing in international waters near the South Pacific’s nuclear-free zone.
The DF-31AG is a road-mobile, solid-fueled intercontinental missile, transported and launched from an HTF-5980 eight-axle transporter erector launcher (TEL). This design gives it high mobility, allowing deployment from diverse locations, including coastal areas like Hainan.
Chinese state media released footage showing ignition, ascent, and stage separation. This level of transparency is unusual, marking a shift from decades of minimal public disclosure about strategic missile testing. A senior Rocket Force officer was quoted saying he had “waited over 20 years” for this moment, underscoring the significance within China’s strategic forces.
Why the Location Matters
Testing from Hainan rather than a remote inland site provided multiple operational benefits. It allowed the missile to launch over open ocean, enabling a longer flight path that more closely simulated real-range conditions. The chosen trajectory ended near the South Pacific’s nuclear-free zone, which drew interest from Pacific nations and international observers.
Defense analysts suggest the location also demonstrates the system’s operational flexibility. The DF-31AG can be moved and launched from various terrains, making it more challenging to track. This mobility enhances survivability in the event of heightened tensions and ensures that launch capabilities remain credible under different scenarios.
Technical Features of the DF-31AG
The DF-31AG represents an evolution over its predecessor, the DF-31A. It uses solid fuel for faster launch readiness, has improved off-road mobility through its TEL, and is believed to be capable of carrying multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs).
Estimated specifications from defense experts include:
- Range: 11,200 – 12,000 km
- Payload: Single or multiple warheads (dummy payload used in the test)
- Propulsion: Three-stage, solid-fuel rocket
- Deployment: Road-mobile TEL for flexible positioning
These features collectively improve China’s second-strike capability — the ability to maintain a credible response option in the unlikely event of a nuclear attack — while remaining consistent with China’s declared no-first-use nuclear policy.
Strategic Messaging
Chinese officials stated the test was part of a routine annual training plan and aligned with international law and practice. However, the decision to release clear footage and still imagery appears designed to signal technological maturity and readiness.
International analysts note that this type of controlled openness serves two purposes:
- Domestic reassurance – Demonstrating to the Chinese public and armed forces that strategic systems are operational and reliable.
- External signaling – Communicating capability to other nations without overt confrontation.
The timing, coinciding with the 98th anniversary of the founding of China’s armed forces, added ceremonial weight to the event. On the same day, China also announced the unveiling of its fourth Type 075 amphibious assault ship and disclosed details about a submarine equipped with nuclear-capable missiles.
Global Reactions and Considerations
While the Chinese Ministry of Defense emphasized the routine nature of the test, the proximity of the landing site to the South Pacific’s nuclear-free zone prompted attention from regional governments. Some Pacific nations sought clarification to ensure the test aligned with international agreements and posed no environmental risks.
The United States and allied nations monitored the launch closely, with analysts noting its implications for the global strategic balance, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. The test confirmed that China now operates multiple long-range missile systems capable of reaching intercontinental distances.
Part of a Larger Modernization Drive
The DF-31AG launch fits into a broader pattern of China’s strategic modernization. As of 2025, the Federation of American Scientists estimates China’s nuclear arsenal at around 600 warheads, ranking third globally. The U.S. Department of Defense projects that this could surpass 1,000 warheads by 2030.
China is also enhancing its nuclear triad — the combination of land-based missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and air-delivered systems. The DF-31AG strengthens the land-based leg, complementing silo-based missiles like the DF-5 and DF-41 and submarine-launched systems from the Jin-class and upcoming Type 096 SSBNs.
Technology and Readiness
From a technical standpoint, the DF-31AG’s mobility is its defining advantage. The TEL’s high-clearance design and all-terrain capability allow the missile to be repositioned regularly, reducing the risk of detection. Solid-fuel propulsion means it can be launched quickly, and MIRV capability would allow a single missile to target multiple locations, increasing deterrent value.
This test provided China’s Rocket Force with valuable real-world performance data, including trajectory verification, stage separation efficiency, and reentry conditions for payload delivery. Such data helps refine targeting models and improve reliability.
Controlled Transparency as Policy
Historically, China has kept its missile testing programs largely secret, often without public confirmation or imagery. The DF-31AG launch marks a shift toward selective disclosure — releasing enough information to shape perception while maintaining operational security.
Experts believe this approach serves both strategic communication and diplomatic reassurance. By showing the test and framing it as a standard training activity, China demonstrates confidence without escalating tensions.
Looking Ahead
Whether China will conduct similar public demonstrations in the near future remains uncertain. However, with modernization advancing and new missile systems entering service, future strategic tests may follow this more open pattern.
The Pentagon’s projections of China’s nuclear expansion suggest that systems like the DF-31AG will become a key part of its deterrent posture for years to come. In parallel, developments in submarine and bomber programs will continue to reinforce China’s strategic resilience.
Conclusion
The DF-31AG missile launch was a landmark event in both technical and strategic terms. By combining an unusual launch site, precise execution, and public transparency, China sent a carefully managed message about its capabilities. For observers worldwide, the test was a reminder that the global strategic landscape is evolving — and that understanding these developments is essential for maintaining stability.
Reference:
https://www.newsweek.com/china-reveals-details-nuclear-missile-test-2108322